the edwards effect.

Word came this morning that John Edwards has dropped out of the Democratic race after his string of lack-luster third place showings. The news wasn't entirely shocking after I saw his subdued enthusiasm last week in South Carolina. Though at that point he was still running, a passion that once sparked his eyes had faded. He looked tired - defeated even. I'm sure he knew then what came to light this morning.

With Edwards out, the Democratic race has narrowed to two -- spare a Mike Gravel who might as well just end it. But now that Edwards is out, there is about 15% of the Democratic voters who are up for grabs. Fifteen percent is HUGE. Whichever candidate is able to capture Edwards loyalists will almost certainly ride a high tide to National Convention.

Though there are varying opinions on who will benefit from Edwards departure form the race, I am certain that Obama will come out with the upper hand.

In the Democratic party -- and really in America for that matter -- there are two types of people. Pro-Hillary and Anti-Hillary. She is a very polarizing candidate. Up to this point, Anti-Hillary Democratic voters have been split between Obama and Edwards.

Though Edwards and Clinton have closely aligned platforms, I do not have faith in the intelligence of American voters. We too often are caught up in personality to see what each candidate stands for. So though Edwards supports might be most satisfied with Clinton in office, I feel the majority of them will support Obama.

We'll just have to see what happens on Super-Duper Tuesday.

I should probably make it known that I am currently not supporting any candidate. Firstly, because I vote in the North Carolina primary, and by the time it's my turn to cast a ballot the Magic Number will long have been reached. Secondly, because these candidates are the same. If you really sit down and look at Obama and Clinton, it is hard to find any hardline differences between them. And what's more -- if you throw McCain into the mix, things are even more blurry. Aside from his deplorable stance on the Iraq war, he's not too far off from his liberal enemies. And if you look into his past, you can get a feel for what he REALLY believes -- not just the platform he's running on to make it through the Republican nomination.

lost passport.

I lost my passport the night before my flight to London.

I have one file that I always keep it in. It's always been there. It's a special file in my filing cabinet that says, "Important." My social secuirty card, health insurance, SAT scores and passport all cuddle closely within protective casing.

But last night, just minutes before I was planning to leave for the first leg of my trip to Europe, I pull out my files and it's gone.

Hmm... I think. I must have missed it, and search through the file again. Perhaps I put it in a different pile? nope. Perhaps the last time I had it out it slipped off my bed? nope. Perhaps last time I took a shower I thought it might be nice to have my passport with me? nope.

I looked literally everywhere in my house. I opened each book. Went through each pocket. Every single bag. I did not sleep last night because I was looking. praying. crying.

Sometime this morning I conceded that it was truly gone. Evaporated from time and space into an abyss of nothingness -- my passport is just gone. I canelled my flight. Wiped my eyes. And now plan to spend the rest of the day moping around and feeling genuinely sorry for myself.

As a person who NEVER loses things -- especially important documents -- I don't understand how people can live like this.

Whenever I do lose things, I always wish I had one of those "missing key" alarms where I could just press a button and the missing item will start lighting up and making noise. I think I'll install a few of those on all of my most important things soon.

I feel nauseated. I really think my heart is broken over having to miss this trip.

Guess I'll have to reschedule for March.

i want cake.

So I've been on this diet.

I know, I know. Diets are miserable, detestable, awful things. But, I've decided that I cannot simply work out and be slim. I must do this thing that I like to call torture.

Instead of reaching for juice, I grab water. Instead of sandwich, I choose salad. Instead of chocolate cake, frozen grapes. It's all really fun and games, let me tell you.

Basically I'm starving.

article: myrtle beach

A commentary piece for The Pendulum after the Democratic debates.

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. – The stakes are high in South Carolina for the Democratic Presidential candidates who are jockeying to win the support of 54 delegates when the state holds its Democratic primary this Saturday. Events surrounding the Martin Luther King holiday set an appropriate stage to frame one of the issues at the core of capturing South Carolina – race. Over half of Democratic voters in the state are black and each candidate has been on the move to woo black voters during the past few weeks.

Hillary Clinton

A narrow win in Nevada puts Clinton on the upswing as she heads into South Carolina, but her diminished support among the black voters could throw a wrench into her plans. To add insult to injury, Bill Clinton’s recent criticism of Obama has attracted negative attention from party loyalists who are more concerned about getting a Democrat in office than which candidate they get in office. And there’s more bad news from Clinton. An opinion poll released by CNN/Opinion Research Corp. showed that Americans would be more supportive of a black president than a female president – not great news for those who are focused on who can win a general election.

The light in the Clinton campaign is that she still leads in national polls. Her marriage to former President Bill Clinton may help her with the black vote in South Carolina, but she is currently projected to come in second. During the debate on Monday Clinton was debating for votes in Florida and on ‘Super Tuesday,’ as opposed to South Carolina. Her time was spent mostly on the offense, attacking Obama on nearly every issue that was brought up.

Clinton targeted the partisan voters by taking several jabs at President George W. Bush. She also sold her experience in politics saying that she’s been taking fire from Republicans for 16 years, and is the most equipped to go head to head with a Republican candidate – namely John McCain. But will her polarizing nature cause Democrats to jump ship and vote Republican? Some wonder.

John Edwards

John Edwards is a South Carolina native who was able to take the state with 45 percent of the primary vote when he first ran for President in 2004. A win this Saturday could put Edwards back up with Clinton and Obama, but a loss will almost certainly signal the beginning of end of his campaign. He’s said he’ll stay in through Convention in August – but really, what else does he have to do?

Edwards was more or less an afterthought when pitted against the flame throwing between Obama and Clinton at the CNN debate. When he would inject on occasion it was genuinely a breath of fresh air from the negativity that bogged the other two. He even asked “Are there three people in this debate, not two?” His attempts to engage Clinton and Obama often only added fuel to the fire between the other two and left him out in the cold, out of the camera’s view and, possibly, out of the minds of the voters.

Then again, his ability to remove himself from the arguing could pay off for voters who are turned off by the animosity between Clinton and Obama. Edwards language was clearly orchestrated to attract the partisan voters, the most likely primary voters. His language was also genuinely positive. When he did talk negative, he was almost gentle, qualifying his responses to soften the blow.

Pundits have already started arguing about who would benefit if Edwards dropped out of the race. Some say that the Democratic party is split into two camps – those for Clinton and those against Clinton – and that Obama would take Edwards supporters. Others suggest that Edwards supporters may would Truly, it’s probably a crap-shoot. But for now, Edwards is in and fighting. A strong showing in South Carolina could propel him back into the limelight.

Barack Obama

Obama has gone far to rally the support of black South Carolinians, expending a lot of energy and money in the palmetto state. Though initially Clinton captured the black vote, recent polls have shown that Obama’s strong showing in Iowa proved his chances to win with white America. This has bolstered his support among black voters who now have faith he can win. Recent polls released by the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. show that 60 percent of South Carolinian black voters plan to vote for Obama, with 31 percent supporting Clinton.

The bad news for Obama is that he hasn’t won a primary since Iowa. Winning South Carolina is important for him to keep up with Clinton who may have the upper hand in delegate heavy Florida. He has also made no secret of his desire to reach out to Republican voters, a move that is expected during the general election but can be risky during the primaries. His praise of Republican darling-child Ronald Reagan was heavily criticized during the debate by Clinton.

Obama’s showing at the debate was a tango of attack and defense with Clinton. Through all the arguing it was hard to hear any new ideas. Instead it was a rehashing of what we’ve heard time and time again. However, his ability to defend himself was unlike we’ve seen in any debate before which may have been exactly what the voters wanted to hear. The audience was clearly behind Obama, laughing at his quips at Clinton and exploding in applause after his bolder statements.

iowa-who.

Rarely is it the case that one of the most exciting events of the year comes 3 days after New Years Eve. A state that Americans pay little attention to for four years becomes the center of the news cycle as the politically minded watch to see how 200,000 cattle farmers in Iowa will play one of the biggest roles in choosing the next American president. It's a night like Halloween or Christmas -- where an underlying electric current rides through the air.

As of 10:21 in Iowa:

Obama - 37%
Edwards - 30%
Clinton - 29%

Huckabee - 34%
Romney - 25%
Thompson - 14%
McCain - 13%
Paul - 10%

I am absolutely amazed.

Clinton, who has long been the white horse in the eyes of bloggers and newspapers, stumbles. Analysts say that it is because of the high voter turn-out which likely indicated more younger voters (aka, more Obama and Edwards supporters.)

Edwards, who is one of the most powerful Democratic speakers and who has thrown A LOT of resources into Iowa, shines. Second place looks good. But critics wonder if he can turn the votes out in New Hampshire and South Carolina, where he hasn't been working as hard.

Obama, who has been perceived as neck and neck with Clinton, TAKES. THE. CAKE. He surprised many by winning a collection of three counties in Western Iowa where the black population is practically nil.

Huckabee seemed to come out of nowhere to have done so well. I suppose it’s no surprise that appealing to the party base paid off. McCain, take note!

Giuliani, who I thought would at least turn some sort of support in Iowa had ... none. I guess campaigning really is the make or break to most voters. Political scientists everywhere rejoice at a solidified job security.

49 more states to go. This is going to be an awesome spring.