MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. – The stakes are high in South Carolina for the Democratic Presidential candidates who are jockeying to win the support of 54 delegates when the state holds its Democratic primary this Saturday. Events surrounding the Martin Luther King holiday set an appropriate stage to frame one of the issues at the core of capturing South Carolina – race. Over half of Democratic voters in the state are black and each candidate has been on the move to woo black voters during the past few weeks.
Hillary Clinton
A narrow win in Nevada puts Clinton on the upswing as she heads into South Carolina, but her diminished support among the black voters could throw a wrench into her plans. To add insult to injury, Bill Clinton’s recent criticism of Obama has attracted negative attention from party loyalists who are more concerned about getting a Democrat in office than which candidate they get in office. And there’s more bad news from Clinton. An opinion poll released by CNN/Opinion Research Corp. showed that Americans would be more supportive of a black president than a female president – not great news for those who are focused on who can win a general election.
The light in the Clinton campaign is that she still leads in national polls. Her marriage to former President Bill Clinton may help her with the black vote in South Carolina, but she is currently projected to come in second. During the debate on Monday Clinton was debating for votes in Florida and on ‘Super Tuesday,’ as opposed to South Carolina. Her time was spent mostly on the offense, attacking Obama on nearly every issue that was brought up.
Clinton targeted the partisan voters by taking several jabs at President George W. Bush. She also sold her experience in politics saying that she’s been taking fire from Republicans for 16 years, and is the most equipped to go head to head with a Republican candidate – namely John McCain. But will her polarizing nature cause Democrats to jump ship and vote Republican? Some wonder.
John Edwards
John Edwards is a South Carolina native who was able to take the state with 45 percent of the primary vote when he first ran for President in 2004. A win this Saturday could put Edwards back up with Clinton and Obama, but a loss will almost certainly signal the beginning of end of his campaign. He’s said he’ll stay in through Convention in August – but really, what else does he have to do?
Edwards was more or less an afterthought when pitted against the flame throwing between Obama and Clinton at the CNN debate. When he would inject on occasion it was genuinely a breath of fresh air from the negativity that bogged the other two. He even asked “Are there three people in this debate, not two?” His attempts to engage Clinton and Obama often only added fuel to the fire between the other two and left him out in the cold, out of the camera’s view and, possibly, out of the minds of the voters.
Then again, his ability to remove himself from the arguing could pay off for voters who are turned off by the animosity between Clinton and Obama. Edwards language was clearly orchestrated to attract the partisan voters, the most likely primary voters. His language was also genuinely positive. When he did talk negative, he was almost gentle, qualifying his responses to soften the blow.
Pundits have already started arguing about who would benefit if Edwards dropped out of the race. Some say that the Democratic party is split into two camps – those for Clinton and those against Clinton – and that Obama would take Edwards supporters. Others suggest that Edwards supporters may would Truly, it’s probably a crap-shoot. But for now, Edwards is in and fighting. A strong showing in South Carolina could propel him back into the limelight.
Barack Obama
Obama has gone far to rally the support of black South Carolinians, expending a lot of energy and money in the palmetto state. Though initially Clinton captured the black vote, recent polls have shown that Obama’s strong showing in Iowa proved his chances to win with white America. This has bolstered his support among black voters who now have faith he can win. Recent polls released by the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. show that 60 percent of South Carolinian black voters plan to vote for Obama, with 31 percent supporting Clinton.
The bad news for Obama is that he hasn’t won a primary since Iowa. Winning South Carolina is important for him to keep up with Clinton who may have the upper hand in delegate heavy Florida. He has also made no secret of his desire to reach out to Republican voters, a move that is expected during the general election but can be risky during the primaries. His praise of Republican darling-child Ronald Reagan was heavily criticized during the debate by Clinton.
Obama’s showing at the debate was a tango of attack and defense with Clinton. Through all the arguing it was hard to hear any new ideas. Instead it was a rehashing of what we’ve heard time and time again. However, his ability to defend himself was unlike we’ve seen in any debate before which may have been exactly what the voters wanted to hear. The audience was clearly behind Obama, laughing at his quips at Clinton and exploding in applause after his bolder statements.
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